Many people have asked me over the last few days for my thoughts, predictions and other ideas for the races that are going to happen in 12 months time. It's a hard one to really scope out.
Thinking back to twelve months ago, the money then was that I was would run again this year - against Josh & Adam - in a re-run of last year's External Convener battle. People suggested that Tom French & Steven Lauder would slug it out against Sara Bodle running for VPSA. No one would have mentioned Ben, Anna or Bruce for VPAA and Kwan was fairly unsure if he'd stand again. And Chris Arnold was as anti-EUSA as you could get, let alone thinking about a stab at VPS. Twelve months ago, so many varied names were being suggested from within those elected back then, that you might have put money against any of them.
To use the Grand National analogy a final time - predicting this far out, is like attempting to predict the runners in that race, without seeing what they do in between, knowing their form in the mean time, knowing their handicaps and their advantages.
In twelve months, EUSA could be a very different political animal, and the forthcoming year's Sabbs (those who have just been elected) could turn people on or off to EUSA depending on what they do.
Looking at it objectively, you can pick anyone on CoM or SRC Exec or in SRC and say "they will run because ..." and make your own reasons. People like Katherine Sellar, Nick Ward and Guy Bromley are inevitably going to be linked with standing next year. People who've just been elected for the first time may also be linked with a possible race next year. The issue is - as I say above - what will the next 8 months bring before people begin to make their minds up?
What about the people who aren't "EUSA people" currently? The likes of Will Searle, Chris Arnold and Chris Williams - people who before the beginning of February most people hadn't heard about, and most people would never have imagined standing.
What I want to see is a completely different thing (forgive the political sounding-ness of what follows). I want to see elections for Sabbaticals that are well challenged and where the electorate has a big cross-section of people to choose from. I want to see people from outside EUSA stand, and take part in elections. And I want to see new ideas in the election campaigns. Of course there are people I'd like to see stand and then go on to win, but this far out, I don't know if they will stand come next February.
Put simply - to predict now would be foolhardy, and the merits of it would be very questionable. Feel free to comment.
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1 comment:
"Thinking back to twelve months ago, the money then was that I was would run again this year..."
Forgive me for asking, but is there any particular reason why you *didn't* run this year? I've enjoyed reading your election blog, but I kept thinking, "Why isn't this guy standing himself?". Your relatively objective perspective would be a great asset to the SRC. I seem to remember I voted for you last year - and I'd happily have done so again!
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